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It has been reported that because of Brexit import car prices may be subject to a £2-3k tax levy. While this will slow down the number of EVs sold, not only those entirely built in the EU but also UK cars dependant on EU suppliers. So my thinking is the demand for people in the UK wanting to sell their EVs might skyrocket. Supply and demand will then push second hand prices up.

So would you sell your EV if you could get up ot £2,500 more than today's price from it?
 

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Totally lost me, why would i want to sell my car because its worth more? What do i now buy thats also more expensive in theory.
With that logic my house should be worried.

More B word cobblers, i prefer to wait and see how the overpaid grownups in charge of various countries come to an amicable agreement and learn to play nicely among themselves.

Its an interesting theoretical question you raise for sure but any subject with the B word mentioned tends to get quite messy so in advance i respect other people views on it entirely but these are my personal ones.
 

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This only works (assuming it comes to pass) if you are downsizing or getting rid of a car altogether (which at the moment I feasibly could, having downsized from 2-1 in September). I’d imagine I’m somewhat of a fringe case
 

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When you come to change your car the increased trade in value will reduce the cost to change cars. That's the best that most people can hope for.
 

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If this is the case the effect of all of the "Green" policies will be lost. Instead of going EV a lot of people will prefer to get a German 2lt TDI and drive it for another 150/200 K without worrying about the environment.
It is down to a simple calculations. A "new" second hand EV for 10/12 000 pounds or a second hand Golf for 6/7000 with a return of 60+MPG and up to 600 miles per tank....I don't think that the choice will be hard especially considering the current Covid situation with so many people struggling with the income at home. £4000 gets you a lot of Diesel...this is almost 800 gallons, enough for up to 50 000 miles. If something goes up in value I expect it to be small engine city cars that cost nothing to insure and can return 50+ MPG even on petrol.
 

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If this is the case the effect of all of the "Green" policies will be lost. Instead of going EV a lot of people will prefer to get a German 2lt TDI and drive it for another 150/200 K without worrying about the environment.
It is down to a simple calculations. A "new" second hand EV for 10/12 000 pounds or a second hand Golf for 6/7000 with a return of 60+MPG and up to 600 miles per tank....I don't think that the choice will be hard especially considering the current Covid situation with so many people struggling with the income at home. £4000 gets you a lot of Diesel...this is almost 800 gallons, enough for up to 50 000 miles. If something goes up in value I expect it to be small engine city cars that cost nothing to insure and can return 50+ MPG even on petrol.
But that is something that the government can choose to influence - scrappage schemes, fuel taxation, VED, etc
 

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But that is something that the government can choose to influence - scrappage schemes, fuel taxation, VED, etc
Like the last time with the scrappage schemes? Gave insane money as "incentive" to people to scrap old cars only to put them into a 60 months finances delas to make them buy a new car and "help" the economy?
How much more "influence" one need on a fuel taxation, the almost 52% going to the treasury at the moment are not enough?
Now don't get me wrong. I am all about EV cars, I've sold V8 twinturbo S6 to become "green" but it was about choice not about incentives. RCI take almost £90 quid a month just for the battery rent.... I know it was my choice but I am just making a point. I am really looking forward to see how they will make this 2030 ban on sale of new ICE works. If you buy a TDI car in 2029 you are looking for at least 20 years life span. What they gonna do, make the diesel £10 quid a litre?
Good luck with your Tesco/Asda etc lorries delivery to the supermarkets.
 

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Some EVs are already subject to duties - Tesla from US or China, MG from China. There's free trade agreements with Japan and South Korea so Hyundai, Kia, Lexus EVs from their Asian factories should be unaffected.

If there's duties on EU EVs then it'll certainly shift the balance between manufacturers and models.

For EVs I think equally or more significant will be the effects of leaving the EU vehicle emissions scheme which measures and targets manufacturers fleet emissions. Now that UK EVs sales no longer appear in the EU scheme's accounts, it may cause them to prioritise sending EVs and incentives to the EU market. The UK has it's own scheme but I wonder whether the interaction of the two schemes will provide the same incentives.
 

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I am really looking forward to see how they will make this 2030 ban on sale of new ICE works. If you buy a TDI car in 2029 you are looking for at least 20 years life span. What they gonna do, make the diesel £10 quid a litre?
Good luck with your Tesco/Asda etc lorries delivery to the supermarkets.
The idea is that in 2050 as the newest ICE will be 20 years old , ICE built today 30 years old, there will be a lot less if them left running on the road. Look now how many cars built in 2000 or 1990 are still on the road now?

Plus i am pretty sure when we get close to 2050 the amount of ICE drivers left will be the voiceless minority and a small tax base, so they can ban ICE from public roads outright. Trailer them to a racetrack only with BEV or private roads.
 

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I am really looking forward to see how they will make this 2030 ban on sale of new ICE works. If you buy a TDI car in 2029 you are looking for at least 20 years life span. What they gonna do, make the diesel £10 quid a litre?
Good luck with your Tesco/Asda etc lorries delivery to the supermarkets.
I saw some reports that 2030 was the date for pure ICE while Hybrid and PHEVs would continue being sold until 2035. But I'd imagine it's simple to implement, just a ban on manufacturers selling these vehicles. Fuel supplies carry on as before.

But the pace at which EVs are progressing I doubt it will be a problem. The prices are coming down, affordable models appearing, in 10 years price parity will have arrived and most people will be buying EVs out of choice.
 

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Firstly, the link below shows trade agreements already in place ready for 2021. Any deal that was via EU will no longer be valid irrespective of any EU deal, so WTO tariffs will apply.
Obviously an EU deal is key to avoiding tariffs on EVs made there, such as Zoe, ID3, i3, etc. Politics aside, I am sure most of us don't want to see prices rise. But realistically if "no deal", there just isn't the margin on BEVs for the manufacturer to absord the costs for 2021. Even if list prices were maintained we should expect discounts and other support to drop. There will also be less incentive to push BEVs here as they won't apply to EU target and UK one will be far easier to meet - probably!

But there is no guarantee higher costs of new BEVs will drive prices up for used. For example, the Zoe ZE50 is more expensive than ZE40 and yet used prices of ZE40 have dropped recently as supply increased - due to buyers upgrading.

Fundamentally, used prices will be set by demand and supply, so if new prices are high and owners do not trade in, then supply will reduce and prices will increase. But new models such as MG (or a lower price Model 3) may encourage small EV owners to trade up a size and again create a lot of supply. Difficult to predict and only time will tell, but I took a pessimistic view and am leasing for two years...
 
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Like the last time with the scrappage schemes? Gave insane money as "incentive" to people to scrap old cars only to put them into a 60 months finances delas to make them buy a new car and "help" the economy?
How much more "influence" one need on a fuel taxation, the almost 52% going to the treasury at the moment are not enough?
Now don't get me wrong. I am all about EV cars, I've sold V8 twinturbo S6 to become "green" but it was about choice not about incentives. RCI take almost £90 quid a month just for the battery rent.... I know it was my choice but I am just making a point. I am really looking forward to see how they will make this 2030 ban on sale of new ICE works. If you buy a TDI car in 2029 you are looking for at least 20 years life span. What they gonna do, make the diesel £10 quid a litre?
Good luck with your Tesco/Asda etc lorries delivery to the supermarkets.
I am not really clear on what your point is. Banning sales of new ICE vehicles will accelerate the move to EVs. Yes, old ICE vehicles will continue to be purchased and used second hand, though I would challenge how many of them will still be daily drivers in 2050.
Whether you agree with scrappage schemes and taxation or not they are tools the government can use to drive the change to EVs. Banning ICE vehicles from cities or other areas is also a possibility, or at least punitive congestion charges based on emissions.
If the government choose to allow a different changeover period for ICE commercial vehicles then they can do so.
Petrol station numbers in the UK are already dropping - you may still have an ICE vehicle in 2050 but you'll probably struggle to fill it up.
Vehicle manufacturers and vested interests will always lobby to delay change because it impacts profit. Look at the implementation dates for the various Euro emmissions limits, and then look at how many cars were available to meet the new regs before the implementation date.
 

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So the figures are a little bit old, but the average age of a UK car when scrapped is 14 years, and the average age of cars on the road is 8 years:

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So the figures are a little bit old, but the average age of a UK car when scrapped is 14 years, and the average age of cars on the road is 8 years:

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Average age of a car on the road is 14 years as per your link...this just make my point even clearer. For the Government it will be uphill battle to put this "EV Future" into place. A lot and I mean a lot more needs to be done before Joe Public take this into consideration.
Anyhow, no point arguing about something that is not even here yet. For everything to happen we need much more development in all levels, starting with national grid. There was a discussion about the fact that home charging point suppliers are refusing to install second charger at the same house because the grid was not allowing such a consumption and the neighbours were complaining about the drop of the voltage in the house next door when the EV was charging. 😂
 

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The idea is that in 2050 as the newest ICE will be 20 years old , ICE built today 30 years old, there will be a lot less if them left running on the road. Look now how many cars built in 2000 or 1990 are still on the road now?
They end up in Africa frequently. I don't know how they will manage the increased complexity there. Cars are now great for 3-7years depending on the warranty, a liability later.
 

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Anyhow, no point arguing about something that is not even here yet. For everything to happen we need much more development in all levels, starting with national grid. There was a discussion about the fact that home charging point suppliers are refusing to install second charger at the same house because the grid was not allowing such a consumption and the neighbours were complaining about the drop of the voltage in the house next door when the EV was charging. 😂
I think that is more a question of the cable going into your house, whether the cable approach is shared and not the National grid.
 

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For everything to happen we need much more development in all levels, starting with national grid. There was a discussion about the fact that home charging point suppliers are refusing to install second charger at the same house because the grid was not allowing such a consumption and the neighbours were complaining about the drop of the voltage in the house next door when the EV was charging. 😂
If you look at patterns of electricity demand, there's already a huge amount of spare generating and transmission capacity over-night waiting to be used, and some within day. The main problem is capacity during the evening peak, and that can be managed by a combination of smart charging to shift it outside of peak hours and time of use pricing, so people start to pay the true cost of the energy they use.

As for multiple chargers, that's as much a problem with the charge point manufacturers failing to include smart load control because it's perfectly possible to supply 2 charge sockets on a single household supply but it needs some intelligent control to manage it. Adding more infrastructure isn't the answer when people aren't using the existing capacity intelligently or optimally.
 

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Average age of a car on the road is 14 years as per your link...this just make my point even clearer. For the Government it will be uphill battle to put this "EV Future" into place. A lot and I mean a lot more needs to be done before Joe Public take this into consideration.
Anyhow, no point arguing about something that is not even here yet. For everything to happen we need much more development in all levels, starting with national grid. There was a discussion about the fact that home charging point suppliers are refusing to install second charger at the same house because the grid was not allowing such a consumption and the neighbours were complaining about the drop of the voltage in the house next door when the EV was charging. 😂
At risk of being overly picky the link I posted states that the average age of vehicles on the road is 7.8 years, not 14 years. I am not sure why this is so different from the age at scrappage, but it is probably the more relevant metric to use.
 

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If you look at patterns of electricity demand, there's already a huge amount of spare generating and transmission capacity over-night waiting to be used, and some within day. The main problem is capacity during the evening peak, and that can be managed by a combination of smart charging to shift it outside of peak hours and time of use pricing, so people start to pay the true cost of the energy they use.

As for multiple chargers, that's as much a problem with the charge point manufacturers failing to include smart load control because it's perfectly possible to supply 2 charge sockets on a single household supply but it needs some intelligent control to manage it. Adding more infrastructure isn't the answer when people aren't using the existing capacity intelligently or optimally.
Fundamentally the barriers are not technical, they are political and educational. That does not mean they are difficult to overcome, it means that a non technical approach is required to resolve them.
 

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At risk of being overly picky the link I posted states that the average age of vehicles on the road is 7.8 years, not 14 years. I am not sure why this is so different from the age at scrappage, but it is probably the more relevant metric to use.
That's fairly easy to explain. the 7.8 refers to an average of ALL cars on the road, the 14 is just that (smaller) number that are no longer to be used. Logically speaking, you might expect the second group to be around twice as old as average.
 
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