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I thought this article to be 'bovine manure'. What we don't see is the so called exponential curve and the data on which it is based? To achieve a linear improvement of 11 x 24 years and extrapolate in a linear manner that would be (approximately) doubling the performance (or halving the price) every 2 years? An exponential curve would, by definition, exceed that rate and see performance soar/ price become trivial exceedingly quickly.
Cleanly the 'research' has failed to into account the availability of the lithium resource? Building larger production facilities does not take into account the environmental constraints of mining lithium?
The whole idea of 100million EVs by 2020 (6 years!) is not a rational interpretation of the free fall of battery prices. Similarly, to suggest that Tesla can/could scale up to exceed Toyota, by 2/3 times, would a development quite unprecedented and, in my view, pure fantasy!
The article continues to make fanciful statements and show data that imply technology introduction, a car engineering revolution, an economic miracle and major social charges - in an era of global economic stagnation!
The introduction of the jet engine was a disruptive technology that created an technological/engineering/social revolution on a global scale! The advent of the EV (which has been around for 100 years) has nowhere near that potential.
Surely all the experience, since the GM EV1, suggests that INERTIA is the best way to view the EV evolution! There are huge vested interests who are keeping the BRAKES ON, the EV evolution and we would do well to be pragmatic in what we expect to happen next!
 

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There are huge vested interests who are keeping the BRAKES ON, the EV evolution and we would do well to be pragmatic in what we expect to happen next!
The problem can be that if people believe that in a few years things will move on leaps and bounds, they won't bother with EVs now, they'll delay and procrastinate and hold-off, because "the next on is going to be SO much better" I know it played on my mind when buying the LEAF.

I do think it's good to future gaze, and for people to push and test and try and move forward faster, but I also think the real focus for most people WILL always be what's out there now, and they shouldn't be worried that what they want NOW will be out of date in the future... if they did this in all purchases they'd never buy their HD ready, HD, 3D, 4k... TVs and 1124th generation BMW 3 Series (with AutoExpress already showing them "spy shots" of the 1125th generation coming next month).

As a consumer I just get excited about what could be, and enjoy what we have now.
 

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JCESR "5-5-5" - five times the energy density, one fifth the cost, within five years
When you look deeper into the role of Argonne you find that they are a research institution and the 5-5-5 has more to do with promoting the abilities of the institute to achieve research objectives, than it is about the bring of new technologies and products to the market.
Whilst it is fascination to read about such promising research - we must not assume that the research will bring a viable solution?
However, you are clearly reading widely and I, for one, appreciate you posting these notices. Please be assured that my feedback is strictly about the subject matter.
 

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When you look deeper into the role of Argonne you find that they are a research institution and the 5-5-5 has more to do with promoting the abilities of the institute to achieve research objectives, than it is about the bring of new technologies and products to the market.
Agreed this is a research project but with $120 million from the DOE I believe they will deliver significant improvements in battery performance and cost.

However, you are clearly reading widely and I, for one, appreciate you posting these notices.
I'm lucky enough to 'play' with batteries and other EV technology and find the area fascinating... happy to share what I find :)
 
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