[donald]

What do we think?

I think the ZS EV has a lot of good things going for it and I am considering an outright purchase of a nearly new one, these are in the £18k range.

The thing about cars is, however, as always, as if it is ever going to be different; depreciation.

What cost on depreciation on a ZS EV do we think?

I was marginally astonished that my Soul still had a market sale value of £15k or so after I had leased it for 2 years, they were on offer for £20~21k at the time. But that was about right based on what I had paid in lease costs.

ZS EV can be had on lease for ~£10k over 4 years, so will it be worth more or less than £8k in 4 years time, or about right?

I am not doing many miles these days and destined to do even less. 5k will do me these days, which makes an old Bentley attractive as it will depreciate less than the fuel costs, even at 'several' mpg.

Not sure where to go these days, car wise, as I am heading to a point where I would 'like' a car but, really, honestly, don't need one beyond the wheelchair van I am using at the moment (for my son).

So help me out; low miles in the future, will ZS EV work out financially sound, taking in to account depreciation?

 

[dk6780]

The chances of a major repair being required in the Bentley is much higher, and the MG will still be in warranty. But nothing else will compare.

 

[CasperStorm]

@donald I suppose it depends how long you plan to keep, and also your guess is as good as mine re EV demand over the next 3-4 years.

If the question is: "Do you think a 5 yr old, 25k mile ZSEV will be worth over £8k" it might be worth looking at what 16-plate LEAFs are selling for.

I suspect it will be.

Have always thought leases as better instruments for getting a fat manufacturer discount on a new car that is otherwise unavailable (like the £220/mth 1+17 225xe deal in 2018), rather than over 4+years.

 

[TJEV]

MG don’t offer a 4 year PCP, I tried (knowing that I’d likely only keep it for 6 months so f’kit let’s have the lowest monthlies).

I can’t remember the GFV on the 36mo but I wouldn’t want a ZS EV for a longer period than Santander are willing to take a risk on.

 

[njm106]

MG don’t offer a 4 year PCP

Errrm you sure? MG ZS EV PCP OFFERS

I'd have thought £8-10k for a 4 year old ZS EV would be about right depending on mileage and condition

 

[Kiltox]

MG don’t offer a 4 year PCP, I tried (knowing that I’d likely only keep it for 6 months so f’kit let’s have the lowest monthlies).

I can’t remember the GFV on the 36mo but I wouldn’t want a ZS EV for a longer period than Santander are willing to take a risk on.

Yes they do - they also offer 4 year business contract hire.

 

[Neilew]

ZS EV can be had on lease for ~£10k over 4 years, so will it be worth more or less than £8k in 4 years time, or about right?

If the question is: "Do you think a 5 yr old, 25k mile ZSEV will be worth over £8k" it might be worth looking at what 16-plate LEAFs are selling for.

MG don’t offer a 4 year PCP,

These are the exact terms of my 4 year PCP. (£308/month and £8k GFV)

I have a feeling that a 5 year old EZS will be worth a lot less. I had been of the opinion that I was going to keep mine for the full 7 years of warranty, but the lack of charger timing and some of the characteristics of the software are pushing me to move on a lot earlier. I'll probably look at it again after the first MOT.

 

[TJEV]

Santander weren’t offering 4 years at the time I applied last summer (the dealer did offer 4 years with a different lender with a punishing interest rate). Maybe it’s changed since, or different franchises use different finance companies.

 

[Brian G]

Given the lack of new car sales over the last 12 months will there not be a shortage of second hand cars, and will not people then be looking for EVs rather than the clapped out ICE cars that will be around. I suspect that residuals may be better than you are thinking.

 

[Neilew]

Santander weren’t offering 4 years at the time I applied last summer (the dealer did offer 4 years with a different lender with a punishing interest rate). Maybe it’s changed since, or different franchises use different finance companies.

They'd just switched to Santander when I booked mine back in March last year (2020). Can't remember who from.

 

[Neilew]

Given the lack of new car sales over the last 12 months will there not be a shortage of second hand cars, and will not people then be looking for EVs rather than the clapped out ICE cars that will be around. I suspect that residuals may be better than you are thinking.

That was certainly the case last March when I p/x'd my Zoe for the MG. Was very pleasantly surprised how much I had in the Zoe for the deposit.

I'm just a tad worried about the anti-Chinese temperament there is going on down south. No real evidence up here, but what starts in London often moves north.

 

[TJEV]

Don’t confuse “anti Chinese” (which is disgraceful and racist) with “anti CCP” - as far as I’m aware, a lot of the negative sentiment round these parts is aimed at the gov NOT the people.

Although MG is a state owned automaker, most folk won’t make the connection so I wouldn’t worry about that...

 

[Neilew]

Yeah, it was the BBC having a moment of slow news the other date. Reporting racial taunts and threats to Chinese people. You'd think that in this day and age we'd be beyond that sort of thing.

 

[Big277wave]

I'm guessing the residuals will be related to future battery prices. If the price of batteries fall to the point where new EV's will reach price parity with ICE in 2027, that reduction in price of a new EV is bound to depress the second hand value.

 

[Brian G]

I'm guessing the residuals will be related to future battery prices. If the price of batteries fall to the point where new EV's will reach price parity with ICE in 2027, that reduction in price of a new EV is bound to depress the second hand value.

Not just battery but copper for the motor windings. I note that mineral prices are rising on the back of 1st world economies getting over Covid.

 

[LeakingElectrons]

As always, difficult to judge. Like any car, the ZS seems to suffer its biggest chunk of depreciation as soon as you drive it off the forecourt, but a nearly new one will avoid that. We bought ours when it was three months old and had just over 1,000 miles on the clock - it was nearly £7,000 less than what the original buyer paid.

Ultimately, if you're buying a ZS for £18,000 and keeping it for four years, you're highly unlikely to lose more than £18,000 on it. Even at its absolute worse, I can't see that after four years it wouldn't be worth at least £8,000, simply because it's electric (and electric cars will be supply constrained for some time) and it will still have 2-3 years warranty remaining at that point. Yes, range will be poor compared to new cars, but manufacturers are still aiming toward the higher end of the market with their electric offerings, so options for budget EVs are slim.

The MG brand means not a lot to man people at the moment, either. If MG do end up releasing the e-motion and the Marvel then we may see the brand image boosted, meaning more desirable and better residuals.

Confirmation bias I'm sure, but the ZS EV seems a better 'buy' than most other cars simply because its original purchase price is sensible. I wouldn't, for example, do anything other than lease cars like the Kona, Mokka-e, etc, as there's a lot more money to lose.

 

[donald]

Ultimately, if you're buying a ZS for £18,000 and keeping it for four years, you're highly unlikely to lose more than £18,000 on it.

And losing £18k in 4 years is OK just to drive around a bit?

Not in my bank account.

When did this sort of money become acceptable for average motorists to use up?

I would expect to be able to hire a limo with chauffer for that.... and enough money to ask him to wait outside the Asda shop too, while I do the shopping ... or even just follow me around and take things off the shelf and pack them so I don't have to get my hands dirty.

Realistically, this ZS EV discussion I think is realistic and is looking like £8k at 4 years. At my current 5k miles/yr, that's around 50p/mile. I don't feel able to do that.

TBH, the whole 'EVs hold their residuals', which has been quite true during the last few years of golden-offers on BEVs, looks like it is going to go astray. Losing 50% on a £35k car (if that's what one pays for a Kona or such, and a more-than-realistic £17 residual on a 5 year old) in the space of 5 years looks financially painful to me.

The petrol (despite paying well over the odds on x14 the CO2 tax credit rate on it compared to electricity which underpays its carbon impact) is still the smaller cost for lower mileage users.

 

[andrew*debbie]

ZS EV can be had on lease for ~£10k over 4 years, so will it be worth more or less than £8k in 4 years time, or about right?

Residuals on EVs are unpredictable. That is one of the attractions of PCP or PCH. The finance company assumes the risk.

My guess is the trade in value (we buy any car) will be a little higher than £8k for a four year old ZS ev. Hard to know since so much is based on demand for used EVs and the economy.

We've had cars come in on both sides of the PCP line. The '14 LEAF was worth far less than the subvented residual. The '17 LEAF was about even. Debbie's little Mazda was worth thousands more, so we kept it.

 

[Neilew]

We've had cars come in on both sides of the PCP line. The '14 LEAF was worth far less than the subvented residual. The '17 LEAF was about even. Debbie's little Mazda was worth thousands more, so we kept it.

Yeah, same here. The return on first Zoe (2015) was painful. Value was way under the GFV and Renault weren't prepared to move close enough. So it was returned (My daughter had to let her's go for the sake of £100 because Renault weren't prepared to come the extra that would have meant she could afford it). Second Zoe (2018) was a massive surprise as the was quite a lot of equity in it when I came to buy the MG.

 

[LeakingElectrons]

And losing £18k in 4 years is OK just to drive around a bit?

Not in my bank account.

When did this sort of money become acceptable for average motorists to use up?

That was meant to be a bit of a joke. My point was that you're likely to lose a lot less than the current crop of, let's be honest, average everyday cars that just happen to be EVs but are priced at what you can get a decent Audi/Merc/BMW petrol car for. £40k+ for a Kia is silly money.

If keeping depreciation to an absolute minimum is the goal then surely a 5-6 year old Corsa at £3-4k is the way to go. EVs are still a niche really. If depreciation is something you can tolerate but don't like the risk of it being higher than anticipated, then surely a lease is the best option.