Quite a lot of these reports I've seen show the crossover-point around 2020 when they expect batteries to ship at <$200 per kWh of capacity - this being what's needed to really start shifting volumes, so they say. There's news for them - LG are supplying the Chevvy Bolt batteries at about $160 per kWh now, and don't forget these guys have been doing the very reliable Volt/Ampera batteries, so know what they're up to.

By 2040 I'd expect all cars to be electric - the only question will be how many pure BEV, and how many PHEV. I don't see petrol disappearing completely - even if it did in UK (but classic car owners will still want some!), u have huge continents like Africa/Australia where it will always be a good idea to be able to carry around lots & lots of energy that isn't dependent on power-lines/solar-systems which could break down in ways that are technically difficult/slow to repair.

Norway's doing well - 18% of new cars there are EVs I believe - dunno what incentives are used at what cost though!

As far as I'm concerned, EVs have already taken off - I'm a convert, and please can you come & talk to my wife and convert her - potentially ideal user - as I can't seem to!!! (Needs very-long-sigh-I-give-up emoticon, can't find one!)

 

Norway's doing well - 18% of new cars there are EVs I believe - dunno what incentives are used at what cost though!

Very simple - EV's were VAT-exempt. Guess what? Sales went through the roof. Bit of a no-brainer really

 

Odd - one of the things I've noticed is just how many ladies there are with EV's and there are a fair number on here, which I find unusual in a car forum. My wife has zero interest in cars in general but is obsessive about all aspects of her Leaf - she just "gets it" in a way she never really did with an ICE (with one exception, her Fabia VRS years ago).

 

Another thing is ever-tightening emissions legislation will drive up the cost of ICE cars- it already has driven up the manufacturing cost but most manufacturers have offset this by reducing quality elsewhere.

An exhaust for a Mercedes Sprinter contains a diesel oxidisation catalyst, a diesel particulate filter, a selective catalytic reduction catalyst, silencers, exhaust gas temperature sensors, pressure sensors, Adblue injector and a NOx sensor. The full exhaust system retails at £3500.

 

An exhaust for a Mercedes Sprinter contains a diesel oxidisation catalyst, a diesel particulate filter, a selective catalytic reduction catalyst, silencers, exhaust gas temperature sensors, pressure sensors, Adblue injector and a NOx sensor. The full exhaust system retails at £3500.

What's the lifetime of this? How often is some or all of it likely to need replacement? 100k miles?

With labour this alone is coming close to battery replacement costs for a short range EV, certainly so in 2-3 years time.

 

Bloomberg might say that by 2022 Ev's will be as affordable as 'regular' cars - but my Zoe was less expensive than my previous ICE car and is cheaper to run and service - and in less than 2 years with the advances in battery technology I see very little future for the majority of 'regular' cars and 'regular' users.

 

All these reports and predictions keep perpetuating the fallacious argument that the purchase cost of an EV has to match the purchase cost of an ICE and have equivalent performance and range for them to take off. It doesn't. Anyone that can operate a calculator can work out annual cost of ownership including fuel, road tax, maintenance etc and will spot that parity is achieved even when the EV costs more than an equivalent ICE. Sadly this basic skill seems beyond most journalists, so the main car buying public are told that they should only buy an EV when it costs £10k, has a 300 mile range and presumably out-sprints an F1.

 

Bear in mind that we pay no VED, no fuel duty, only 5% VAT on our fuel and recieve thousands of pounds in grants. This is totally unsustainable should EVs start to shift in big numbers. So no, we aren't at price parity yet.

 

It's not just about demand, but also supply and infrastructure. Global car production was 68 million last year. Nearly every one had an ICE, made by companies that have vast manufacturing facilities to build engines and transmissions in house. AFAIK most of these companies lack battery,control and drive systems expertise and production in any kind of volume. So, what will global production be in 2040? If it is still around 70 million then 35% means maybe 25 million EV drivetrains would be built, and the current infrastructure/expertise would have been replaced. Not sure about that. If China and India volumes grow then at a total market of 100 million that would mean growth of >30 million cars, almost all of which would have to be EV/PHEV. Then there are grid capacity and sales distribution/servicing to fix. So, I think growth will focus on PHEVs but I hope they are with EV range>100 miles and tiny ICE generators...

 

yes then when all these cars are being scrapped you could use the drive train battery etc connect it to a wind turbine or water mill and away you go off grid I'm sure some cleaver folks could come up with a simple wind mill design for these!!

 

Mmm I'm off to the drawing board just came up with an excellent business idea

 

Think it will happen?

I think it will be more like 2020. Affordable "200 mile" cars from GM, Nissan and Tesla are about a year away.

Other manufacturers are following close behind.

 

Used EVs have already achieved price parity haven't they?

 

2023 is my predicted year when EVs outsell ICE only cars. Even if the EVs are PHEVs or range extended but all have a final electric drive and decent plug in capability 20kWh+.
I'd say it will take till 2030 at least for everyone to go BEV as the infrastructure isn't there. Even at £100/kWh a 60kWh battery will cost 3x more than a 20kWh battery i.e. £6,000 vs £2,000. That's to much on a car like an Aygo or C1 and 20kWh isn't enough to get a car like a Nissan pathfinder more than a few tens of miles.

When they get to £50/kWh it will be hard to justify adding any form of ICE.

 

Rather selfishly I rather like the fact that there are so few EVs. When sales really take off the Govt will have to find a way of taxing EVs, they will remove subsidies for chargers, we will see very few free charging points. 2nd hand prices will rise as people appreciate the real value of the cars. The 'smug' factor of being different and ahead of the trend will disappear.

That's me being selfish, I know from an environmental and noise pollution that EVs are the way forward, but we will look back on these times and realize we never had it so good, to coin a phrase.

 

Also we will never have it so cheap again. The 'market' is used to paying 20 to 30p a mile for fuel. So as EV range becomes comparable to ICE cars, and the limitations of EVs disappear, then the Govt will ensure the consumer ends up paying prices they they have always accepted (otherwise it's a massive tax revenue opportunity missed) We will be told that it's to pay for power stations, road infrastructure, schools etc. So enjoy 2p a mile driving!

 

It's an interesting one, this thread of discussion. I have mentioned it before too. It seems like it would happen, and probably will. But electricity is very democratised - we can generate our own. That would not stop Gov from charging revenue on electricity through a charge point - this is what happened to compressed natural gas cars; I had looked into this in the mid 90's and decided against it, but consisted of a domestic compressor that used the domestic supply to refill your CNG car, which also doubled up as a duty revenue meter.

Perhaps 'pre-revenue' charge-points and EVSE leads without any Duty raising encumbrances will become worth their weight on gold at some point in the future.? I can't imagine what is going to happen, actually. Probably pay per mile, I expect, and as mentioned it will be priced according to what people are expecting on fuel now.

 

I agree taxing electricity will become more impossible as self generation expands.
I think in future all cars will be connected to the Internet, just as the Leaf is today. It would be very easy for HMRC to then tax you per mile travelled. Any car that did not connect regularly would have to signed as 'off the road' same as road tax today. Do not underestimate the state's willingness to collect revenue, data and control its citizens. Remember it is for our own good...

 

I agree taxing electricity will become more impossible as self generation expands.
I think in future all cars will be connected to the Internet, just as the Leaf is today. It would be very easy for HMRC to then tax you per mile travelled. Any car that did not connect regularly would have to signed as 'off the road' same as road tax today. Do not underestimate the state's willingness to collect revenue, data and control its citizens. Remember it is for our own good...

This is exaclty what will happen.

They won't even need Gatsos to collect speeding fines. Not becuase they'll use GPS to prosecute you, but your car will be driving itself and stick to the speed limit too so there won't be fines. But you'll get to work faster as a "ground traffic control" system will stop cars bunching and bottle necking by doing things like opening gaps as you approach junctions. Away from junctions cars will road train - the tech to do that has existed since the early '90s. Car as the front has the eyes and send messages to the rear car to brake first - at least 0.1 seconds earlier than the next car in front. Will anyone miss driving when they can sit in the seat legally reading SpeakEV on their ipad/17" touch screen, or playing minecraft with the driver in front on a lan.

It will be triggered by the gov announcing a system where you pay no road tax and get exclusive use of the fast lane if your vechile is equipped with the relevant tech.I.e. autopilot capable of 100mph cruising and ZEV capability. It will need a 5 years lead time to allow cars with the tech to be deployed, but in the mean time you'll be able to use autopilot and pay per mile and drive at normal speeds. Is you use auto pilot you'll be given an mileage discount as the number of road traffic accidents will be reduced.

Peak rate traffic will pay moer per mile than off peak. With a typical commute of 50 mile round trip netting the treasury around £4 in income - similar to what fuel duty does now. Probably a bit higher in peak times - say £6, with shoulders being £2 and night time free.

Yuor EV already has the hardware to enable all all this, but not the software.

If I were to go out on a limb, I'd say recharging will be enabled on route via HGVs using overhead pantagraphs having docking stations at the rear for cars to plug into and get a regen tow + electric transfer. So a 10 hour non stop trip to the south of France becomes simple. Finally railways will be de-tracked and freight and public transport driverless vehicles will use the old railyway lines, with the advantage individual carriages will exit direct to a town centre while the rest of the train carries on to the next town.

Gievn the abundance of electric - I'd assume they'll start fitting Nespresso machines in soon.

 

You're right, it will absolutely become based on how much you drive = how much you pay for the road infrastructure. Sort of seems fair.

 

Spot on EVpotential. I would go one stage further, you won't own the car, you order whatever you need at the time like Uber without the driver. You would pay more for speed of response, exclusivity and special features like a bed if you are doing a long journey or office if you want to work. If it was just you on a short journey it might just be a small pod. A long journey with family it would look more like a lounge on the inside. Concept of 4 people facing forwards 2x2 consigned to history's dustbin.

 

You don't need hgv chargers, there'll be dynamic induction in all bar the smallest of roads and therefore tiny batteries in the car itself (enough for say 10 miles). Practically all your EV electric will then be taken from the under-road grid and taxed accordingly.

 

I have looked at that and I think it's just too expensive to be feasible. They can't even manage to cover the roads in tarmac, and keep it maintained, so what chance of an under ground induction loop system connected to the grid that can beam a directional HF AC signal at cars as they approach. Scalextric slots however..? That's surely easier than image recognition as a way of keeping a car going in the right direction. Just not too fast round corners. LOL

 

We'd never have guessed the truth of it;

By 2022 regular Cars will be as unaffordable as Electric cars

Brexit, 5% RPI, Covid, 5% RPI, Work from home, wholesale changes to jobs, Fuel shortage, Gas shortage, 30p/kWh, War, another 5% RPI ...

Who'd have imagined all of that, or even that when we voted Brexit, within 5 years we'd end up inviting 2 million Ukrainians in ...

 

My mate has just paid over £11k for a bicycle!!!

Eleven thousand pounds!

Utter madness.

It doesn't even have electric assist!!

 

But can it go 10% further and faster than an Ami? I think so!

 

The Citroen Ami will be under £10k.

That should be cheap enough for the 'little people'.

 

Is it better than the Twizy

 

Little range though...

 

Enough to get to the train station.