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China is sending its world-beating auto industry into a tailspin

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1.6K views 21 replies 13 participants last post by  colinstone  
#1 ·
"CHENGDU, China -
On the outskirts of this city of 21 million, a showroom in a shopping mall offers extraordinary deals on new cars.
Visitors can choose from some 5,000 vehicles. Locally made Audis are 50% off. A seven-seater SUV from China’s FAW is about $22,300, more than 60% below its sticker price.
These deals – offered by a company called Zcar, which says it buys in bulk from automakers and dealerships – are only possible because China has too many cars.
Years of subsidies and other government policies have aimed to make China a global automotive power and the world’s electric-vehicle leader. Domestic automakers have achieved those goals and more – and that’s the problem.
China has more domestic brands making more cars than the world’s biggest car market can absorb because the industry is striving to hit production targets influenced by government policy, instead of consumer demand, a Reuters examination has found. That makes turning a profit nearly impossible for almost all automakers here, industry executives say. Chinese electric vehicles start at less than $10,000; in the U.S., automakers offer just a few under $35,000.
Most Chinese dealers can’t make money, either, according to an industry survey published last month, because their lots are jammed with excess inventory. Dealers have responded by slashing prices. Some retailers register and insure unsold cars in bulk, a maneuver that allows automakers to record them as sold while helping dealers to qualify for factory rebates and bonuses from manufacturers.
Unwanted vehicles get dumped onto gray-market traders like Zcar. Some surface on TikTok-style social-media sites in fire sales. Others are rebranded as "used" – even though their odometers show no mileage – and shipped overseas. Some wind up abandoned in weedy car grave yards.
These unusual practices are symptoms of a vastly oversupplied market – and point to a potential shakeout mirroring turmoil in China’s property market and solar industry, according to many industry figures and analysts. They stem from government policies that prioritize boosting sales and market share – in service of larger goals for employment and economic growth – over profitability and sustainable competition. Local governments offer cheap land and subsidies to automakers in exchange for production and tax-revenue commitments, multiplying overcapacity across the country.
“When there is a directive from Beijing that this is a strategic industry, every provincial governor wants the car factory. They want to be in good shape with the party,” said Rupert Mitchell, an Australia-based macroeconomics commentator who previously worked at a Chinese EV startup. “Ultimately what happens is that it makes the existing auto sector double down on investment.”
And more..... "

 
#4 ·
Lots of Chinese brands are coming to the UK. We’ve had MG (owned by SAIC) for quite a while, and Geely have several brands, Volvo, Polestar, and Smart, with Zeekr coming soon. Great Wall Motors have been here for years, but not doing particularly well. When was the last time you saw a Steed pickup, or an Ora 03?

Omoda and Jaecoo have popped up out of nowhere, in Arnold Clark, and I see lots of them driving around every day. A few Leapmotors too. BYD are doing well, and watching iTV last night I saw Chery sponsoring a show. I saw a car I didn’t recognise the other day - turns out it was a Skywell.

More are waiting in the wings, including NIO, XPeng, and Changan.

It’s well known that Chinese car companies are extremely competitive, with hundreds of brands launching and failing every year. The ones that survive are amongst the very best in the world.
 
#6 ·
The weird thing is these stories about China having overproduction of high-tech products and the resulting price war spun as if that is some kind of disaster.

Nope, that's what things look like when things are going well.

Meanwhile we've got shrinkflation and local brands that haven't produced an innovative product since who knows when. And in the background, public infrastructure slowly degrades.
 
#10 ·
The weird thing is these stories about China having overproduction of high-tech products and the resulting price war spun as if that is some kind of disaster.
Is it anything less than a disaster for local brands, with Chinese manufacturers dumping excess production in markets around the world?

Which would you rather have - local brands that haven't made innovative products, or no local brands because they've all gone out of business?

How did we come to have a situation where China produces almost all of the solar panels currently manufactured in the world? It happened because China deliberately created massive overcapacity, and then dumped product on the rest of the world, destroying almost all competition.
 
#8 ·
The thing is that the MGs that are made by SAIC seem to be well made. You can argue about refinement of the suspension and the scratchy plastic (save me from idiot motor press writers!) but they work and don't appear to give any trouble. The early ZSs were beta with their software (and were not VW?) but that was fixed in 6 months and the points raised by owners really listened to, the 2nd Gen ZS and all the MG5s seem to just work! There may be a few dissatisfied owners but when I look at the specific MG threads there are virtually no problems raised. Presumably BYD and the other Chinese marques which compete with SAIC do so on quality for their home market? I have 5.5 years with my ZSs and had one software glitch affecting the 7kw charger that required a return to the dealer back in summer 2020. But in terms of performance as a family runabout mostly doing trips of 150 miles in the day they have been super. Seventy five minutes for the first service last Thursday, done whilst I waited, I was too late to enjoy the coffee I fixed, my keys arrived whilst it was lava hot!
 
#13 ·
When you read that Porche and other high-end manufacturers are rethinking their EV strategy; the Chinese market is why. There used to be a big market for upmarket Western cars, but that's all but vanished. Plus, the cheaper Chinese cars are effecting the European markets.

It's not because nobody wants EVs,
 
#14 · (Edited)
"CHENGDU, China -
On the outskirts of this city of 21 million, a showroom in a shopping mall offers extraordinary deals on new cars.
Visitors can choose from some 5,000 vehicles. Locally made Audis are 50% off. A seven-seater SUV from China’s FAW is about $22,300, more than 60% below its sticker price.
These deals – offered by a company called Zcar, which says it buys in bulk from automakers and dealerships – are only possible because China has too many cars.
Years of subsidies and other government policies have aimed to make China a global automotive power and the world’s electric-vehicle leader. Domestic automakers have achieved those goals and more – and that’s the problem.
China has more domestic brands making more cars than the world’s biggest car market can absorb because the industry is striving to hit production targets influenced by government policy, instead of consumer demand, a Reuters examination has found. That makes turning a profit nearly impossible for almost all automakers here, industry executives say. Chinese electric vehicles start at less than $10,000; in the U.S., automakers offer just a few under $35,000.
Most Chinese dealers can’t make money, either, according to an industry survey published last month, because their lots are jammed with excess inventory. Dealers have responded by slashing prices. Some retailers register and insure unsold cars in bulk, a maneuver that allows automakers to record them as sold while helping dealers to qualify for factory rebates and bonuses from manufacturers.
Unwanted vehicles get dumped onto gray-market traders like Zcar. Some surface on TikTok-style social-media sites in fire sales. Others are rebranded as "used" – even though their odometers show no mileage – and shipped overseas. Some wind up abandoned in weedy car grave yards.
These unusual practices are symptoms of a vastly oversupplied market – and point to a potential shakeout mirroring turmoil in China’s property market and solar industry, according to many industry figures and analysts. They stem from government policies that prioritize boosting sales and market share – in service of larger goals for employment and economic growth – over profitability and sustainable competition. Local governments offer cheap land and subsidies to automakers in exchange for production and tax-revenue commitments, multiplying overcapacity across the country.
“When there is a directive from Beijing that this is a strategic industry, every provincial governor wants the car factory. They want to be in good shape with the party,” said Rupert Mitchell, an Australia-based macroeconomics commentator who previously worked at a Chinese EV startup. “Ultimately what happens is that it makes the existing auto sector double down on investment.”
And more..... "

I'm curious to know. The information on this, and China in general, seems a bit limited.

Who is actually 'suffering' with an over-supply of cheap cars?

Presumably someone will end up losing money. The questions are; who? how much?

Are they OK to bear the loss and it was always a tolerable investment risk, or does it ruin them?

Or maybe, the excess production merely represents over-production by hard working Chinese and Chinese industry, and although their efforts are now going to go under-rewarded, one might ask 'so what'?

Maybe the Chinese Government knows what it is doing, and all these over-production things going on look problematic, but it gets the nation 'busy' and committed to an excess of capital production that can easily tolerate this sort of thing?

Heck, when 'communism' under-produces then everyone heaps scorn on it, but if it [the Chinese version] over-produces, then ..... oh, yeah, heap scorn on it still ....
 
#15 ·
What the West needs to realise is that China wants to become the worlds dominant economic power, much of what we buy emanates from China, such that home grown industries have vanished, it is seeking to do the same in the automotive industry. So is buying homegrown the answer or will we all be seduced by the lure of cheaper offerings.
 
#20 ·
There's the quality & functionality bit too. Some of the newer models come with everything as standard, whereas most European cars require you buy muchnof that as extras or ‘add on packages’, costing even more. Yet the reported quality seems as good as anything even the best are making.

for the majority of buyers, they’ll go where their money goes furthest.
 
#22 ·
Warren Buffett dumps stake in Chinese Tesla rival amid £31bn exodus
Berkshire Hathaway’s sell-off leaves car giant BYD’s shares down 29pc from May highs

Warren Buffett’s investment giant has sold off its entire stake in BYD as investors lose faith in China’s Tesla rival.
Berkshire Hathaway revealed in its latest filings that its shareholding in BYD fell to zero in the second quarter, down from $415m (£308m) at the end of last year.
Mr Buffett’s exit led to the carmaker’s shares falling by 3.4pc in Hong Kong on Monday, fuelling a £31bn drop in BYD’s valuation since May.
Nicknamed the Oracle of Omaha, Mr Buffett first bought shares in BYD in September 2008 after the company was recommended by Charlie Munger, his long-term business partner, who died in 2023.
The company’s share price has since risen by more than 4,500pc, although it has been losing steam over the past six months.
Mr Buffett has been selling down his stake since 2022, a move that other Western investors have followed in recent months.
The carmaker’s top five stakeholders – Vanguard, BlackRock, JP Morgan, Fidelity and Citigroup – sold a combined 222m Hong Kong-listed shares in the second quarter, worth around £2.6bn.
The latest downturn has left BYD’s shares down more than 29pc from their record highs set in May this year, wiping around £31bn off its market valuation.
It comes after BYD said profits fell to 6.4bn yuan in the second quarter of the year, down 30pc from the same period in 2024, amid a fierce EV price war.
Li Yunfei, a BYD executive, said in a post on Chinese social media site Weibo: “In stock investing, buying and selling are normal practices.
“We’re grateful to Munger and Buffett for their recognition of BYD, and for their 17 years of investment, support and companionship.”
The sell-off comes despite the carmaker, which sells EVs and hybrids, growing its share of the British car market, with sales of 1,759 vehicles in August, up from 438 during the same month last year.
However, the manufacturer in May began selling its entry-level car for 75pc less than the cheapest Tesla, cutting the price of the Seagull hatchback by 20pc to 55,800 yuan (£5,800).
That is around a quarter of the cost of Tesla’s cheapest car, the Model 3, which sells for 231,9 00 yuan.