Volatility?!

Have you tried Motorway?

 

Who revalued it and had you put a deposit down on a MG?

 

Actually, its not just my car - had a look on AT, and most cars have dropped by a good whack - not just EVs. I think it's about 4 days since I last looked on there, and this has happened - its not just volatility, something major is happening !!

 

Recession looming around the corner, dealers won’t want expensive stock sitting on their forecourt if general public is feeling the squeeze - and the greed from previous had taken overhand, so reality is starting to kicking in

 

Christmas is always the slowest time of the year for shifting secondhand cars. Dealers would be running down stock anyway. More so this year given current economic outlook.

 

I've just revalued my Audi A4 2019 on webuyanycar and motorway, it's dropped by £40 so I think I can handle that.
Am a bit worried how much it might drop between now and my ID.4 which could be another 18 months yet. Considering an MG5 from Elmo drive in the meantime, it will cost me money but at least it'll be a controlled amount.

 

great - I should have stuck with my old diesel, I'd have lost less !!

 

Hmm you got me intrigued, just checked my EV6 and its gone up well over £1000 since it was valued for PX 4 weeks ago.

 

so its personal then - basically just the cars I either own, or have looked at buying - great !!

 

The new Niro EV has come out, it's not unusual (thanks Tom Jones) for prices of an old model drop when a new version comes out. That together with the impending doom will see things start to get back to normal. It may ease pressure on delivery times if demand for new motors slows down. Can production be maintained though, so many variables.

 

Could it also partly be down to interest rates going up, so putting some off who would have bought on finance. Less buyers and more stock = price drop.

 

I put the details of my old ID3 Family into Motorway. When I sold in May it was up for £38200, now it's £36400. £1800 loss in 6 months. In normal times £300pm depreciation would be expected. Perhaps the market is normalising and people need to adjust their expectations?

 

No it's because the demand for ID3s have dropped, that bubble was always going to burst, the prices got ludicrous. Cupra Borns are holding their value, mines stuck at the circa 33k mark the whole time I've owned it (Motorway etc) but you can take that with a pinch of salt as the data is limited on Borns as there isn't many out there to inform these automated systems pumping out numbers. Suspect the value is holding well though as they are selling second hand quite quickly from what I've been tracking.

Tesla M3s have lost a lot of value because the market is being flooded with leases coming to the end of their 3yr period, MYs are coming down due to the volume being pumped out.

https://cap-hpi.exposecms.com/file-uploads/20220927091739_Car-Market-Overview-Oct22.pdf

Electric vehicles have been a little more mixed. While new car supply issues continue to positively impact on the value of some models like the Volkswagen ID.4, Cupra Born and Hyundai Ioniq 5, we have seen a levelling off of the previous strength seen in models like Volkswagen ID.3 and Jaguar I-Pace. The most noticeable change in performance this month has been for Tesla Model 3, as values on average have reduced by 3% (c.£1,250 at 1-year old). Some of the pressure on the Model 3 could be accredited to an increase in disposal volumes throughout September, in fact at the time of writing we are currently on track to receiving the most disposal data in a month this year for this model. Many used EVs have increased significantly in price over the past year due to new car supply issues, for example average values for a 1-year old VW ID.3 with 10,000 miles on the clock have increased by 31% or c.£8,700, making its’ and many other models’ current position seemingly unsustainable in the long-term.

https://cap-hpi.exposecms.com/file-uploads/20221025113246_Car-Market-Overview-Nov22.pdf

Last month we reported that we received more disposal data for the Tesla Model 3 than in any other month this year and whilst sold volumes have eased slightly in October, values have still moved down 5.9% or c.£2,100 this month, that after dropping by 2.6% or almost £1,000 in September. Additionally, Tesla Model Y values have reduced by c.4.9% (c.£2,850) in cap Live in October, as their volumes have grown. Despite the reduction for the Model Y, however, newer used examples still remain over the cost of a new one, which again would appear to be unsustainable. Pressure on Electric Vehicles has not been isolated to Tesla product, with BMW i3, Audi Q4 E-Tron Estate, Nissan Leaf, VW ID.3 and Volvo XC40 Electric all dropping by more than the average. With more volume to come and prices high, there could be interesting times ahead, particularly for more expensive EVs

 

Yes, I think ID3 prices are correcting a bit. Perhaps eNiros the same as their segments overlap and both have some new rivals/replacements recently/soon out, as well as the general spending squeeze to contend with. It will happen to everything soon enough. My ID3 Family's Motorway valuation peaked at about £40k with 8000 miles but it must have dropped substantially now as there are equivalent cars on dealer forecourts for a bit less than that. Two months ago you couldn't buy one with alloys under 10000 miles from a dealer for less than about £45k. One of the regulars on the UK Facebook group reported yesterday that his old car is now being advertised by a dealer at £2k less than he was paid for it by wbac. I think it's happening fairly fast along with everything else in the economy over the last month or two.

 

It’s not just cars, I was checking prices to my favourite holiday destination. In 2019 I got all inc detached beach villa for a shade under £5k. When the economy opened up after C19 prices doubled. Wifey checked recently and prices are heading back where they should be. Same with cars and even some house priced have cooled.

 

The ID.4 GTX we have has consistently been above RRP on Motorway etc since we got it in March this year, but noticed a few days ago when I got the ‘your car is worth xx’ email that it had dropped a little for the first time.

I have been thinking about selling it to be fair, but honestly don’t know what to replace it with. My current work situation keeps me needing to do a 200 mile each way (with an overnight stop in between) most weeks, so there are a fair few EVs that could do that.

I’ve always fancied a Honda-e, I could potentially make one of those work, regular commute is around 80 mile round trip, so I could use that and then our Tesla on the long trip, as it’s rare we’d both need it those 2 days I’d be away with it.

I don’t know, wonder whether I can be bothered to be honest, I’ll probably keep it as it’s a good work horse and nice to drive.

Now’s the time to sell those ID.3s for a profit whilst you still can by the sounds of it!

 

That's what increased interest rates and a tightening of money supply is supposed to do, what is called 'demand destruction.' That could be the start of some good news on the inflation front.

I bought my van as a pre-reg with 30 miles on the clock in autumn 2019. This summer, with 30k on it and its first MOT, we buy any van was still offering me as much as I paid for it. That gave me a feel-good factor but getting a new equivalent one would have meant a 6-8 month wait and an additional £12-15k.

 

The current used EV prices were always vulnerable because they had reached a level where unless you were a forced buyer, it simply made no sense to buy a used car and you'd be better buying new if you could tolerate the wait. Tesla Model 3 is a good example of this, the first buyer was playing so little depreciation over ~3 years that the buyer of the used, worn Tesla at 3 years was looking at paying more year in depreciation for a worn car, out of warranty, than the person who got it brand new. The monthly finance costs for a used one were around the same, sometimes more than brand new.

As EV volumes ramp up and they start flowing through to the used car market, they will have to fall to a level that they become an attractive choice compared to new if they are to sell in the volumes needed.

 

Well I checked motorway - better than WBAC, reducing my yearly cost down to around £3.5K - but still annoying. Strangely, on BCA, they're still listing the auction values of mine, but with around half the mileage, between 30 and 40K - so it looks like my high mileage one is getting hit first. I guess it all makes sense really, but it's taken the option of selling before the recession hits out of the equation.

 

Not that it helps 'sellers' feel better, but I think it is best for the economy as a whole that prices on everything come down. My Passat is now £9k, down from a peak of over £10k. Of course, it is only now I am contemplating selling it, a depreciation of 10% in 6 months. Meh. Just the way things are. But of this recession? FTSE has bounced back up I notice, but until we are clear of the high tides of at least 'foreseeable' global shocks washing over us, I'm planning on keeping a low 'economic' profile.

 

I'm planning on keeping a low 'economic' profile

not like your profile here then donald !!

TBH, it was just the fear of a recession hitting my SIPP, and making it hard to withdraw the FGV value on the car scaring me - no recession, no problemo !!

 

As I said, I'm a bit concerned about my Audi A4 value as if it drops too much then I'll be left short for my new car, however I've allowed a reasonable buffer in my finances.
But the fact that ID.3 and ID.4s used are more expensive than brand new feels like it's actually slightly insane and I don't think is something that is sustainable. I've always purchased "nearly-new"/pre-reg cars to get them quicker and cheaper, but for the ID.4 this would actually cost me more.

 

You missed the window

 

Great news. Looking to get an EV replacement for our Dirty Diesel next year and could do with used prices coming down a bit

 

My dealer didn't even want to give me a written approximate for my 330e 2020 model, even though he sold it to me back in 2019, because of the long delivery. Same with the EV6 we also just bought. The situation currently is unpredictable, you take a risk when you buy a car, if financing is dependent on your present car than that risk is huge. But anything can happen, delivery times are far too long, so prices can go down a lot more, but can actually also increase for the second hand cars.

 

Today vs 22nd Aug Model Y 😬

 

Today vs 22nd Aug Model Y 😬

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Your wording implies that it's gone up, but the emoji would indicate it's down, which is it?

It's a big hit, but less than would be expected in normal times over the course of 18 months on most £57k motors.

 

I saw a post for USA on Linked In saying that used EVs are down in price there and the market was starting to settle back to normal following supply shortages and supply chain issues earlier.

 

That's the thing, if my existing vehicle was on finance (lease or PCP) and due to go back and I'm being told 12-18 months for my new EV then I might be tempted to pay an additional 5-10% to get one now.
As this time start dropping to a few months then this isn't as important and may as well buy new.

Unfortunately for ID.4's I'm still being told more than 12 months.

 

12 months?

I'm at 18 and counting!