My experience was that it was pretty variable. I kept sentry off, didn't use the app at all, and most of the time the car would barely lose anything overnight. It did go through a phase for a couple of months where it lost may be 1 percent every night, though. There was something odd going on with its "wake up and phone home" thing. Normally it would wake up sometime around 00:00 to 02:00 and do the "phone home to the mothership" thing over WiFi, but only stay awake for ten to fifteen minutes, so only maybe 0.08% drop (not enough to show). For a while, though, it would stay awake for two or three hours every night, and for the few months it was doing that it would lose up around 1% or so per night. Never did work out what the issue was, but I flagged it to Tesla and they did phone me after an update to ask if the car was still doing it, and it had stopped, so my guess is that it was just another flaky software update issue.
I think the issue may also have been related to us not having a mobile signal here, as if the mothership SMS doesn't wake the car up for the nightly check (which it never did here) then the car seemed to default to waking up, perhaps using a timer, so that it can turn WiFi on and connect that way. I never managed to confirm this, though, it was just a guess, but I did used to have to wake the car up whenever I heard there was an update coming, so it would phone home and check. My car never normally auto-updated, even though that was the default, it would only detect that an update was available when I did the "check for updates" thing, presumably because Tesla normally use the wake-up SMS to tell the car to connect to WiFi to download an update.