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Need some man maths help…

7.1K views 88 replies 38 participants last post by  ahutcheon  
#1 ·
I’m the sort of guy who doesn’t spend money easily, and I tend to run my cars for a long time. I'm in need of some help/discussion/some like minded folk to bounce ideas off..

I do a lot of miles, 20-30k/annum for various reasons that I won't get into. These are 80% personal miles, the rest are for my employer (I have equity in the company fwiw, but I doubt I could persuade the directors that I should have a company car). I charge at work for free at the moment. I buy my cars outright, I'm mortgage free, I don't have kids.

I've always assumed that my cars will be going for scrap when I'm done with them, so I have a £1k/annum depreciation figure in my head that I'm comfortable with - buy it for 10k, I'd like it to last 10 years. I've recently realised that with inflation, this figure isn't really valid anymore.

If you were looking for a 'new' car, would you buy used at 1yr old, used at 3yrs old, or brand new?

I'm starting to think that I should probably look at 1yr old stuff for my next purchase, but It's quite hard to stomach that sort of spend, considering the fantastic deal I got on my used Ampera 6yrs ago, and how cheap it has been to run over 130k miles (nothing has gone wrong, it has needed a wheelbearing and some rear discs)

I supposed I should ignore the purchase price and just look at the costs/mile, amortised over 100/150k miles, and then assume it will be worth something at the end of it?

Having always run old junk, the idea of something so new and so expensive seems a bit of an extravagance tbh... I'm looking at stuff around 50kWh size/100kW charging, nothing SUV shaped.
 
#2 ·
Do you have enough savings to buy a new £40k car with cash?

It sounds like you are doing rather nicely, debt free and probably with good pension savings. Intentional spending becomes a good thing in some stages of life, if all other financial plans are pretty much solved. Eventually you will face the stark choice of either spending money or throwing it away by dying.
 
#6 ·
Some conflicting perameters within your post

Will it be 20-30k a year
or
Will it be 100-150k over 10 years

As regards new or slightly used…..depends
Some cars/manufacturers have “fantasy” list prices new (Stellantis)
Others have fairly fixed list prices….leading to lower year 1 ‘losses’

eg A new Corsa (run-out model) at £20k looks better value than a 1 year old one at £17500.
 
#7 ·
It's going to be 20-30k a year. I was using the 100-150k as an upper limit on how long I'd probably want to keep it for if I assumed I would sell it whilst it still had some value. Would this be unrealistic? Are cars over 100k miles considered worthless these days? I don't know, having never actually sold any of my cars :D

I see your point on the new vs used at 1yr...

My brain says 'buy something new, run it to 200k, then see what it's worth' - but that seems like a lot of money to sink on something that's a depreciating asset when 'I could make do with something 1yr old and push it a bit longer'
 
#8 ·
I personally would suggest that the days of personally buying a new EV because of finance deals / incentives etc have long gone, and the current costings of second hand EVs are much more in line with how the market always used to work. There doesn't seem to be anywhere near as much EV premium anymore - especially when getting P/Ex prices !! - even if the sale prices are still somewhat inflated. I think you're biggest issue is still going to be getting the biggest bang for your buck - top marque EVs are still expensive, even if they've lost 50% of their value. High efficiency, low cost, long range non-SUVs aren't exactly numerous in availability even now.
 
#10 ·
With a 5 year unlimited mileage type of car eg. Hyundai you can buy later in the depreciation cycle.

If you can buy a car cash then it's always worth looking at 0% HP offers instead so you keep the money as well.

The MG5 is probably the best work horse car even with a worse warranty than unlimited mileage. Anything that breaks Cleevely Mobile will probably have fixed before one bought now gets old and high mileage enough to fail in the same way.

Sub £20k so not £15k but it's a decent amount of car and the long range version which I think will be the better buy for longevity.

 
#12 ·
Tesla are offering 0% APR on the any remaining Model 3 RWD Long Range. The updated car is on the way. 0% APR incentive to clear them out.

Also 2.5% APR on Model Y for a few weeks.


If you are looking for cheap motoring, used Ionic is a certainly worth a look.
 
#25 ·
Tesla are offering 0% APR on the any remaining Model 3 RWD Long Range. The updated car is on the way. 0% APR incentive to clear them out.

Also 2.5% APR on Model Y for a few weeks.


If you are looking for cheap motoring, used Ionic is a certainly worth a look.
Given the OPs mileage, the M3 LR is probably where I'd be looking. Possibly a year or two year old example - especially whilst they still have indicator stalks 😅
 
#13 ·
We all need money nest....however, having a lot of money in the bank don't bring you anything. Obviously you have your pension sorted, debt free, no worry for kids. Driving 20/30K a year. You can get £40 K car cash.... What is stopping you other than your mind? Tesla model Y long range comes with 120K miles warranty on the battery and motors. Giving you easy 280/320 miles on charge. You drive a lot, so Tesla superchargers will help you a lot, not to mention that they are the cheapest per kWh in the country. You are talking about the BIG picture...here it is.
 
#14 · (Edited)
I loved my Ampera, bought it at 3 years old for 15K, kept it 5 years & sold on for 8k, so v similar approach to you! I really wanted to go full electric, so got an Ioniq 38 which has 200 mile range in summer, 180 in winter, and is the closest thing to an Ampera you'll find. Slightly deeper boot space is a bonus!

This car is so efficient (reckoned the best on the road, along with the 28 model) it does with 40 kWh what others need 50+ to manage. The efficiency makes up for the somewhat slow charging - it gets up to about 46 kW at 60% SOC, then drops to 33 kW to 75%, at which point it's time to move on. But as you're retired like me, maybe you have the flexibility to overlap charging during a trip with a meal somewhere? I recently did 600 miles across France in 2 days, and by the time I'd had lunch at a restaurant/hotel the car would be near as dammit full. The slower charging wasn't a major issue. Price for these is 13K upwards, v good value for money I reckon. The batteries seem to be lasting well, with very little degradation at high mileages.

If you're doing a lot of recharging during the day trips, the 28 has shorter range, more like 160 summer 130 winter, but charges at 67 kW up to something like 70% SOC, so noticeably quicker!

All the other affordable/sensibly-sized(!) EVs around (except Model 3/Y) seem to be SUV-ish, and the aerodynamics are poor as a result. I had an iD.3, 58 kWh battery briefly, and at 70 mph on m'way it was using 10% more energy than the 38, so didn't have anything like the extra range I'd expected from a straight battery comparison. I hated the interior logistics & minimalist approach to buttons/knobs etc, while I love the conventional/traditional set in these small Ioniqs. So I flogged the iD.3!
 
#16 ·
#17 ·
I think I share the OPs attitude to cars, maximum £4k paid, with the main difference being that I have never done many miles and I'm now retired. So I took Red Lake's approach to spending now and bought an MG ZS EV and only sold it because they offered more than I paid after 2 years! If the second hand market had been better value at the time I wouldn't have bought the ZS. Now happily in an MG4 which I have no intention of changing, although calculated at a higher rate of depreciation than the OP. :)

The answer to the question though isn't perhaps the same for an EV as it might be for an ICE, which is the view I took, so perhaps a practice review is needed? The comfort and performance are certainly appreciated, and a few test drives might help the decision making.
 
#18 ·
Toyota have recently announced their plans for a solid state battery within the next 3 to 4 years. Other manufacturers are also looking at battery technologies.
In my opinion the solid state battery could be a game changer.
On this basis personally I would plan for a short term purchase this time round rather than a 10 year plan. This means a second hand purchase with a view to selling it in 3 to 4 years.
I am like you tend to buy new and keep cars for a long time but these recent announcements made me think differently because of the speed of development of the battery technologies.
I know there are arguments to be had on buying futuristic technology but my gut feeling at this stage is to wait and see how things pan out.
 
#19 ·
Toyota have recently announced their plans for a solid state battery within the next 3 to 4 years. Other manufacturers are also looking at battery technologies.
Have you kept with Toyota news as a whole? The first time they have mentioned solid state battery was 4 years ago, ever 6 months since then, they are promising just another few years....the latest was that they are expecting a production to start at 2027.....Just saying....Toyota are very good of "promising"....the hydrogen Toyota comes to mind. This was THE car to have for the future....6 months ago they completely abandoned the idea after spending billions.
 
#20 ·
Well I think everybody has pointed out that you can afford to buy one and you are in a good place financially, but the big numbers are holding you back.
If you buy a base Tesla model 3 and it's worth zero when you get rid (unlikely) then it's less than £11 a day. Doesn't sound so bad now does it?

For me I can then see the value of the car, it's a tangible item I can see and feel.
Now insurance is the killer, you can't see it or feel it and if you are lucky (part of that is good driving) you never use it so it does feel like a ripoff.

So now I have convinced you to go and buy the Tesla just get some insurance quotes first to see if you can stomach the yearly premiums.
 
#21 ·
If you buy a base Tesla model 3 and it's worth zero when you get rid (unlikely) then it's less than £11 a day. Doesn't sound so bad now does it?
This is a proper man math 😂(y)
 
#24 ·
On the EV front I notice Ipaces seem to have dropped from 65k new to 24k in 3years and there are Ioniq 38 1 year old at 16K -bargains . Most other Evs haven't yet dropped to these levels ie 2020 ID3 24K ! mad
I know that the OP don't want to look and "SUV" but we just bought Mercedes EQA for my wife and it is 22 plate car with just over 7000 miles....for £17K lower than was brand new. Now this is a bargain in my book.
 
#47 ·
You could get a 3yr old 2020 Iconiq 38kwh with modest miles with that sort of budget and get the heatpump heating and better
Without going into any details, I have to say that this should be the way that everyone need to live. All of us are "planning" for tomorrow and for 5/10 years from now. The only thing I will say is that no one knows if there is tomorrow.
Perhaps somebody will see this as negative approach but just think for a second...... People in Israel were celebrating holiday...next moment they were killed. Without being political, you can apply this to any place on earth.... Recent bad weather in Scotland and the UK took lives, few weeks ago bus driver and child passed away because the guy had a heart attack.

There is no tomorrow guys, there is only today.
I wholeheartedly agree after being within 50 yards of one IRA bomb going off in Belfast (my fiance was a nurse in AnE and was checking I wasn't one of the casualties) and leaving a building which nearly collapsed due to another bomb 200yards away minutes after (the wall moved six inches but didn't collapse) . Life can be short , live it while you are able !
 
#30 ·
I know that the OP don't want to look and "SUV" but we just bought Mercedes EQA for my wife and it is 22 plate car with just over 7000 miles....for £17K lower than was brand new. Now this is a bargain in my book.
Nice. So you and @Parkwood are now TopGun Team Mercedes on here then 👍
 
#33 ·
What's wrong with your Ampera? There have been some posts around here from testimonies of 1M miles ones with little battery degradation. Can't yours survive another 4-5 years? Out of warranty should not be a worry for you based on how you describe your relationship with cars.
 
#35 ·
There is nothing wrong with the ampera at the moment, and I’m not averse to keeping it till it gets old. It has been dirt cheap motoring and still does everything I ask of it. I’ve used it as a van and trashed it, with a dent in every panel, but it’s a tool to do a job.

I just have a full-Bev itch to scratch.
 
#34 ·
SHA222 - forget the Toyota solid state batteries thing. Even if they did come to market in 2-3 years (which isn't possible), their prices will be sky-high just like every other newer & better product. Maybe a decade from now the solid state batteries may drive down the incumbent chemistries, but not much before then.
HughF's question was: pay more for a year-old EV or pay less for a 3 year-old one?
That depends on the car and its usage. Also, bear in mind running costs including insurance & car tax (if you have to pay for it), routine servicing, brake repairs and tyres.
 
#36 ·
My logic would be:
Cars lose most value in the first few years so buying used around the 3 year mark gets a reasonably new car, potentially with a few years warranty left for around half the price when brand new.

Then for the really high mileages you want something either reliable, or reasonably common so repairs are affordable, so I'd steer clear of anything which has sold in small numbers. While Toyota aren't popular with the EV crowd, they're generally good car for high mileages which is why they're so popular as taxis, but their EV selection is ultra limited, just the very pricey BZ4x or the two Lexus models, UX300e and a new Rz something or other.

Maybe something common, there's so many Tesla 3s around everywhere there should be some garages able to support them in future years by virtue of the sheer numbers of old Model 3 that will need repairs to keep them on the road.

Similar arguments apply to the Nissan Leaf e+ though that has the issue of the Chademo port and air-cooled battery, similar to the UX300e.

Perhaps something like a Kona 64kWh, they're coming down in price, reasonable guarantee period.
 
#37 · (Edited)
There are some good discounts available on pre-registered cars at the moment. We got our Peugeot e208 GT in April for under £30K, cash, discounted from £36K~£38K for the same spec (50kW battery) as a factory order. That was a 19.4% discount on the factory price fot it being a 'used' car, because it had 10 miles on the clock and one previous owner (the dealer). The dealer had four such on the forecourt in GT and Allure spec' and we opted for the GT because you get a lot of options bundled-in for relatively little premium. It replaced a 2007 Peugeot 206 that had turned 102,000 miles when we traded it in for the e208. So that gives you an idea of our cost horizon. The 206 was bought in similar circumstances - we were looking at used and then pre-reg were available at only slightly more cost, with much less mileage. Citroën had very similar pre-reg cars on their forecourt with similar levels of discount. So if the e208 or Citroën ë:C4 look like something that would suit you, you might consider taking a look and seeing if anything similar as pre-reg is on offer. But you wont get this with an MG - all their cars were factory orders only.

When I crunched the numbers, cash was the most cost-effective and flexible option for us. I understand that this won't work for everyone, but I've been caught before in the loop of leasing and similar financing.
 
#38 ·
Yeah, I’m tempted to go for something that’s got plenty of models on the road. Model3 seems sensible, as does ioniq28.

Model3 being a saloon is a bit of a deal breaker but I might be able to live with that. I’d prefer and estate to be honest which means mg5 or mg5….
 
#41 ·
Astra and e308 estates are soon to come out and should fit your desired 50kwh/4mi/kWh point. They will no doubt be set at high RRP though so you'd have to wait a bit longer for good prices. I'd think they'd be nicer cars than the MG5.
On one other question you posed...can 100k cars be worth something now...yes! I have an Octavia vrs estate on 97k which is seemingly still worth around £7-8k to sell, they go for £9-11k to buy from a dealer. I would hope BEVs will eventually plateau at higher scrap value too, due to the value of repurposing the batteries.
 
#39 ·
As you live in the U.K. there is a nice little tax dodge called salary sacrifice. I’ve picked this link at random but perhaps you could get the directors to sign up to one of them. You can buy the car at the end of these lease! Just search EV salary sacrifice.


Apart from that. If you have money to spare, can easily afford and want a new car then buy one. You can’t spend it when you are dead. From a bang for buck point of view you’re better off buying a 1 - 3 year old car and selling it when it’s 8. That way you avoid the worst depreciation and are likely to avoid have it when it starts going seriously wrong and costing you money to maintain.