We are a net importer, the data is on the National Grid web site. BUT things are moving fast with energy. French nuclear fleet was in the doldrums in the summer of 2022 but it has been repaired by and large. France is the clearing house for electricity for Spain, Italy, Switzerland and to some extent Germany.
Spain has loads of wind turbines up on the central plateau and Portugal has a lot too along the border with Spain. There has been a lot of on shore wind developed in Germany in the last 12 months and the low countries have plenty too, so when it blows a hooley over northern Europe they have a surplus of cheap power. Germany also has a lot of solar PV and on many days they have price plunges in the middle of the day. We are now connected to France 4 GW, and 1.4 GW each to Belgium, The Netherlands, Denmark and Norway and Germany is in the build stage. Norway acts as pumped storage for northern Europe, when there is surplus renewables they take it and hold back their hydro power. The UK has a lot of wind in the mix and with 5 GW being built ready for 2025/6 we should see gas usage reduced even more. Europe has reduced its need for gas since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Germany's industry must have been squandering it because along with reduced needs for CCGT they and France reduced consumption by 15% and in the UK gas consumption has fallen considerably, price sensitivity and wind blowing has helped a lot. Hence the gas futures are falling like a stone. They may have hit the bottom about now but there is no shortage of gas, nor the LNG tankers to ship it. LNG world output is increasing with Senegal, Canada and the US adding new plant this year, possibly Mozambique later and Australia next year. On top of that Qatar will double its output in 2026/7 adding another 5% or more to total world output in one go. LNG tankers are being built in at least 5 shipyards to cope with this additional output. Three/four ships will be launched every month for at least the next 18 months. Consequently any issues with routing round Capetown from the Middle East won't affect supply, but might add a small price for the longer time on board. The Panama canal closure has caused ships from Peru to come via the Magellan Straits but again the extra few days makes little difference to the price because they are not paying the toll for the canal. The prediction is that LNG tankerage will exceed crude oil tankerage by 2027/8, with the increase in renewables being built we might just find that we are reaching peak LNG in the next 18 months.
UK electricity consumption will rise, but heat pumps won't have a big impact yet. Last year a mere 32,000 were installed, we might hit 50,000 this year which is a long way off the 600,000 the govt aims for in 2028. There are said to be 200,000 heat pumps installed, that is likely an under estimate but peak demand is likely to be no more than 500MW in the height of winter. Rising demand will be easily met by more renewables. As for EVs they impact the night demand more than anything but even with a million on the roads many will charge only twice a week and on most nights this winter we see CCGT making up only the minimum amount of power to provide frequency stabilisation. Industry will make a difference but gas demanded by industry is tiny. The statistics show about 5 mcm being used compared with domestic demand of 190 mcm yesterday. Steel production by electric hearths is much more efficient than blast furnaces and I suspect brick kilns will be much better insulated with any waste heat recycled when they go electric.
In summary there is little to think that we will suffer electricity shortages, the biggest issue is bottlenecks in the grid and these are all scheduled for fixing. Scottish Hydro or SSEN has works in hand to bring new wind power power down to Denny and Fife, Scottish Power has a large programme of works out to tender to bring power around Scotland's Central Belt from the north and the new wind farms off the coast near Edinburgh and Fife as well as a host of big on shore wind farms which are being added to. The sub station on the border near Carlisle is to be extended and completely rebuilt to handle more power and of course the HVDC links to run round the border to Blythe and Drax are in the stages of early development. The Dogger Bank 5 GW is under construction, 2.4 GW of Hornsea 3 is to go ahead soon as well as 4 GW off East Anglia. The Irish Sea has some 5 GW in development and the South Coast 1.2 GW off Worthing to be built later in the decade. We might be a bit behind where we would like to be with renewables but there is plenty of work in hand.
